Toronto’s made jumpers throughout the playoffs have been by far the most suspenseful of those of any of the final eight teams, taking an average of 0.117 seconds to fall into the basket. That hang time was 44 percent longer than the average of the other seven clubs. And looking at a larger sample size doesn’t change much about the result: At an average of 0.108 seconds, the Raptors’ successful regular-season jumpers at Scotiabank Arena took longer to fall through the basket than any other team’s makes on their home courts, too, according to the SportVU analysis. You might remember that Leonard hit a game-winner in March against Portland — a fadeaway from Scotiabank’s right baseline, with the shooter’s bounce and all — that looked almost identical to the one he would eventually make against Philadelphia.Video Playerhttps://fivethirtyeight.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/KawhiBLAZERS.mp400:0000:0000:12Use Up/Down Arrow keys to increase or decrease volume.To be clear, even though the Raptors have the longest hang time at home, their numbers are far from an outlier in the data set. The arena did have an odd rim-related issue last season, when officials had to delay a game because one of the rims was slightly crooked and required an adjustment. But no one could look at the numbers presented here and realistically suggest that anything about them is crooked, or that the arena’s rims are fundamentally different from others in the NBA.Still, there’s no doubting the fact that Toronto has gotten a couple of very friendly bounces over the course of the playoffs — not just from Leonard, but also from Pascal Siakam and Fred VanVleet, who told me somewhat candidly, “I hate our rims.” (While that might sound odd, given his incredible hot streak lately, VanVleet had struggled mightily the last two postseasons from the perimeter.)Video Playerhttps://fivethirtyeight.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/BOUNCES.mp400:0000:0002:21Use Up/Down Arrow keys to increase or decrease volume.There are a number of potential factors to consider with unusual data like this. One counterintuitive example: A team with dead-eye shooters, for instance, often won’t get opportunities for much hang time on the rim because their jumpers will swish through the net, registering a minuscule amount of time around the basket as a result. At the same time, though, players and teams who use considerable arc might be better positioned to get a beneficial bounce or roll, regardless of how soft or tight the rims are.2Midrange shots usually require less arc than 3-pointers, so a team taking more triples — like the Raptors, who have taken more than 40 percent of their shot attempts from that distance this postseason — might ultimately get more soft bounces. And no team has put more air under its 3-pointers this postseason than Golden State.In fact, while the Raptors’ shots have had the most hang time on the rim during home games, the Warriors have seen the league’s biggest home-road disparity in terms of how much longer the ball has teetered on the basket while playing in familiar confines. Golden State’s jumpers have stayed in the vicinity of the rim 0.02 seconds longer at Oracle Arena this postseason than on the road, by far the biggest gap of any playoff club. By contrast, Toronto’s shots actually hang near the rim slightly longer on the road than they do at home, so it’s hard to claim a soft-rim advantage at home for the Raptors. Trail Blazers-0.001 76ers0.216 Raptors0.224s Raptors-0.008 On jump shots of 10 feet or more, among teams that advanced beyond the first round of the playoffs.Sources: STATS SportVU, SECOND SPECTRUM Celtics-0.004 The notion of shot arc is where Leonard’s series-ending jumper comes into play. While Kawhi generally doesn’t put much arc on his shots at all, he had to loft the one against Philly over the outstretched hand of 7-footer Joel Embiid to avoid having it blocked. Leonard’s shot reached a peak height of 18.2 feet before bouncing on the rim — a night-and-day difference from the league-average peak height of just 15.1 feet. The extra height almost certainly gave the shot a greater chance of going in from a physics standpoint.And that shot is the first thing that comes to mind now whenever the Raptors benefit from seemingly lucky bounces. VanVleet, even with his expressed hate for the Toronto rims, has fully leaned into the idea that something magical — with the baskets or otherwise — is happening here.“I think we’ve got a special thing going. Just kind of the aura, and the magic in the air, you can feel it a little bit,” VanVleet told me. “We have a lot to do with that, our fans have a lot to do with that, and things are just going the right way for us.”Check out our latest NBA predictions. Bucks0.206 Celtics0.210 Are the Raptors getting lucky rolls on their home rims?How long shots hang on the rim by team in home games, 2019 playoffs TEAMADDED HANGTIME AT HOME On jump shots of 10 feet or more, among teams that advanced beyond the first round of the playoffs.Sources: STATS SportVU, SECOND SPECTRUM The Warriors’ shots survive on the rim longer at Oracle ArenaHow long shots hang on the rim at home vs. on the road by team, 2019 playoffs Warriors+0.020s Trail Blazers0.220 Rockets+0.006 Bucks0.000 Rockets0.181 TEAMBALL IN VICINITY OF RIM 76ers-0.006 Nuggets0.208 Warriors0.214 Nuggets-0.014 Kawhi Leonard’s rainbow arc game-winner in Game 7 of the Eastern Conference semifinals over Philadelphia — a buzzer-beating miracle that bounced on the rim four separate times, for 1.8 seconds, before falling through — was historic the second it went down. And that shot will arguably become even more iconic if and when the Toronto Raptors dethrone the Golden State Warriors’ dynasty in the coming days. Few shots have provided that sort of drama while also indirectly ushering in what figures to be a changing of the guard in the sport as we know it.Because of that shot, it’s been hard not to notice the others that have all but taken up residence on the cylinder at Scotiabank Arena. “Those rims are really soft,” Raptors guard Kyle Lowry said.But do shots really hang on the rims more in Toronto? Will the Raptors have some hidden advantage when they take their home court and try to close out the NBA Finals in Game 5? As it turns out, yes, the Raptors’ jump shots do roll on and around the rim longer in Toronto than other teams’ jumpers do in their respective arenas. But no, that isn’t somehow evidence of anything underhanded at play.In an analysis of Second Spectrum shot-tracking data run by Matt Scott of STATS SportVU, we looked at all jumpers of 10 feet or greater, both in the regular season and the playoffs, and pulled the time measured between when the ball hit the rim and when it left the vicinity of the cylinder for a miss or went through the net for a make. The Raptors’ jump-shot attempts at home this postseason have bounced on or around the rim for an average of 0.224 seconds, the longest of any team to advance beyond the first round.1Even if you exclude Leonard’s wild shot against the Sixers from the data set, the Raptors’ jump-shot attempts have still hung on or around the rim longer, on average, than any other team that made it to the second round.
Rodgers is second only to Andy Dalton of the Bengals in Points Above Replacement.2Points scored above what would be expected with a replacement-level quarterback. Ranking and chart limited to QBs on pace to qualify for ESPN’s QBR leaderboard with highest PAR on their team. Yet the Packers have spent the fifth-smallest amount on offensive non-quarterbacks for the 2015 season. Part of this is because the Packers are fiscally responsible and aren’t spending much in general on payroll. But they also specifically rank near the bottom consistently in spending on the guys who play with their quarterback. Here’s how the Packers’ offensive spending over the past three seasons (including this one) stacks up to the rest of the league: Check out win and loss projections and playoff odds for all 32 NFL teams. The NFL salary cap alone explains some of this chart. Teams spending more on QBs often end up spending less on other offensive players, simply because they have to spend less money somewhere. But it’s striking to me just how much a lot of teams with big-name, big-money QBs lean on them. For example, the Packers, Steelers and Giants all spent less money than average on offense despite having three of the top QB salaries in the business. In general, many of the top QBs in the game probably deserve even more esteem than the considerable amount they receive already. For instance, Eli Manning should get a bit more of a break sometimes, as he receives literally the least financial support for his offensive teammates in the league.Rodgers, despite his team spending barely more money on offensive teammates than the Giants have for Eli Manning, has put up much better numbers. He has 73 TDs and 15 interceptions (counting the playoffs) since 2013, compared with 58 and 43, respectively, for Manning. What could Rodgers have done with another $60 million worth of offensive linemen?Twitter question of the weekAs usual, tweet me questions @skepticalsports and there’s a chance I’ll answer them, even if they seem a bit silly. Like this one: OK, silly, but interesting. The precise mechanism of NFL home-field advantage is still an open question. The conventional wisdom is that it has something to do with atmosphere, for example how crowd noise affects signal-calling. I can see how these kinds of effects might reach a nadir immediately after the half. But using ESPN’s play-by-play data, I tried filtering for drives by away teams that start immediately after the half, and found that they averaged a similar number of points as other drives.3Ditto for expected points for the handful of plays immediately after the half: I filtered for offensive plays by the visiting team in the first 100 seconds of the second half and found their average expected points added to be virtually identical to that for the visiting team on other plays. But for the margins we’re dealing with, that sample size is way too small to be meaningful.4I looked at about 2,200 third-quarter drives between the 2006 and 2015 seasons. So I fished around a bit and found that, broadly speaking, the third quarter is better for road teams than average.5That is, teams in the third quarter improved their chances of winning (as modeled by win probability added) by just about 1 percent per drive (over around 9,800 drives) in the third quarter (while matching modeled WPA in other quarters).Now, contra the conventional wisdom, many — though not all — statistically minded NFL analysts think home advantage is more likely to relate to officiating. So with that in mind, I looked a bit more carefully at penalties in particular. Penalties tend to favor the team on offense, but they favor the offense even more often when it’s the home team. The margins here also don’t look huge, but it’s pretty clear over more than 400,000 offensive plays: For every 100 plays a home offense runs, it normally nets about three (expected) points from all penalties called. The equivalent rate for away offenses is just more than two expected points per 100 plays. That difference adds up to about a point per game: not a large fraction of your typical scoreline, but a pretty big chunk of the total home-field advantage that we tend to see (generally around two to three points per game).But here’s the interesting bit: The home team’s advantage from penalties isn’t divided equally by quarter. Nor is it strongest in the fourth quarter, when calls are most crucial, as in basketball. The home team’s largest advantages are in the first and second quarters, with the smallest coming in the third quarter:Curious!I really don’t have any explanation for this, and at this point I would categorize my speculation as “wild.” For instance: Perhaps the second half is when refs start trying very hard not to give in to their unconscious bias toward the home team.Most empirically significant game of this weekThere are many great and potentially revealing matchups set for this weekend, including the Panthers at the Seahawks. A lot of rookie quarterback theory hinges on the fate of Cam Newton — whose rookie campaign bore the hallmark (namely lots and lots of production) of a potential all-time great, but who has had only one winning season in his first four years.But Carolina-Seattle gets only an honorable mention, because the matchup of the week is clearly the Patriots at the Colts. Since the AFC championship game thrashing by the Pats (known for a certain controversy), these two teams — and their two star quarterbacks — have been on very different trajectories. The Patriots obviously did this little thing called winning the Super Bowl, and have started this season on a tear reminiscent of their 16-0 campaign in 2007. Andrew Luck, meanwhile, has been outplayed by 40-year-old backup Matt Hasselbeck — the oldest non-kicker in football this year.After having one of the league’s strongest offenses last year, the Patriots have managed one of the league’s biggest offensive improvements this year (the biggest improvers have been the Cardinals, who with Carson Palmer back at quarterback have had the league’s second-best offense):Rodgers essentially has maintained his MVP form, while Peyton Manning seems finally to be in real decline. But the Colts and Luck, their 26-year-old quarterback, have underperformed by nearly as much as the Broncos have with 39-year-old Peyton Manning at QB.Luck, who is practically the patron saint of Skeptical Football, is expected to return. Given the result the last time these two teams met, the Patriots are expected to romp. Whether that happens or not, we should learn more about the strengths and weaknesses of some of the most important figures and phenomena in the sport today.Reminder: If you tweet questions to me @skepticalsports, there is a non-zero chance that I’ll answer them here.Charts by Ella Koeze and Reuben Fischer-Baum. Stop the presses! Last Sunday, the Packers’ Aaron Rodgers threw two interceptions, his first in Green Bay since December 2012. Granted, they were completely inconsequential, and at least the first was pretty much a freak accident — his pass deflected off a linebacker — but Rodgers accepted at least some of the blame for them all the same. Despite the embarrassment, his touchdown-to-interception ratio remains the stuff of legend. Now in his eighth year as a starter, he has 66 interceptions for his career, along with 262 touchdowns (counting the playoffs). Normally, I’m not impressed by such stats. As I wrote last year (and have defended on numerous occasions), I think that his incredibly low interception rate is in part the result of a potentially costly unwillingness to gamble — particularly in situations where his team is down multiple scores late. I haven’t changed my mind.But I don’t think this quirk of Rodgers substantially diminishes his value. Or put another way, he is so valuable to begin with that even if he’s slightly too risk-averse, it’s largely irrelevant. Of course, Rogers is still relatively young (he’ll turn 32 in December), and he hasn’t had to deal with the ups and downs of a full career yet, either. But he’s a huge outlier, even for a quarterback at this stage of his career. For example, here is how he has accumulated touchdowns relative to interceptions game by game for his career, compared to every QB in NFL regular-season history since 1960:For most quarterbacks, losing causes interceptions just as much as interceptions cause losing. Rodgers is no different; he’d be even more valuable if he made certain win-maximizing adjustments (even though they might hurt his statistics a bit). But the steepness of Rodgers’s rise has no parallel. Criticizing him for it is a bit like criticizing Bill Belichick for not going for it enough on fourth down, or criticizing Lionel Messi for playing tiki-taka football so much instead of trading as many possessions as possible with his opponents. That is, they’re still pretty much the best at what they do, but could possibly be doing a little bit better.There’s one more reason to give Rodgers the benefit of any (skeptical) doubt. Which brings us to our …Chart(s) of the WeekNaturally, a quarterback’s ability to win games is affected by his team’s running game, defense, special teams, coaching and everything else. Even his broader statistical portfolio is largely a team accomplishment, and untangling everyone’s contributions can be nearly impossible. But one indicator of the strength of a quarterback’s teammates is money paid on their salaries. Some teams spend lavishly to surround their quarterbacks with high-powered offensive teammates.1Whether NFL teams are any good at this is a different question. The Packers, not so much:
Embed Code The New York Times’ Benjamin Hoffman reports on the details of the DeMarcus Cousins trade.ESPN Stats & Information takes a look at the numbers behind the trade.Kyle Wagner wrote about whether the trade made sense for the Kings.Chris Dobbertean’s latest analysis of the NCAA men’s field.The NCAA is looking at changing the way it chooses teams for March Madness, writes FiveThirtyEight’s Neil Paine.In a profile in TIME, James Harden makes the claim that he’s the NBA’s most valuable player.Significant Digit: 110, the number of points that Grinnell College scored against Illinois College last Saturday. Grinnell employs the Grinnell System, the hallmarks of which include shooting a lot of threes, subbing entire lineups in and out at once, and employing a full-court press. Welcome to the latest episode of Hot Takedown, FiveThirtyEight’s sports podcast. On this week’s show (Feb. 21, 2017), we revisit how the Kings got fleeced in the DeMarcus Cousins trade with FiveThirtyEight’s Kyle Wagner. Next, we call up bracketologist Chris Dobbertean of SB Nation to break down the stakes in men’s college basketball as March Madness approaches. Finally, is James Harden as good as he says he is? We investigate.Links to what we discussed this week: More: Apple Podcasts | ESPN App | RSS | Embed FiveThirtyEight
Former Chelsea captain John Terry is unsure if he will be continuing with his career at the end of the season with current club Aston Villa keen to retain his services for next seasonThe former England captain left his beloved Chelsea, last season, after falling down the pecking order under new manager Antonio Conte and, after refusing offers from other Premier League sides, Terry signed for Aston Villa in the Championsip.Terry has promptly named the new captain of Steve Bruce’s side and has become an integral part at Aston Villa with the club currently aiming to return to the Premier League this season.Chelsea hat-trick hero Tammy Abraham hopes for more Andrew Smyth – September 14, 2019 Tammy Abraham hopes this season will be his big breakthrough at Chelsea after firing his first hat-trick for the club in Saturday’s 5-2 win at Wolves.But despite Villa’s intentions to keep him for another season, Terry (who turned 37 in December) is unsure whether he will continue playing for another season and has told Bruce that he will make a final decision in May.Daily Star has reported that Terry is concerned that he may no longer have enough stamina to endure a another season of top-flight football and finds the prospect of facing Chelsea to be unappealing.At the end of last season, Terry turned down Swansea City due to not wanting to line-up against his former club and it is believed that the defender may be looking at a prospective move to either America or China at the end of the season.
The 2018 World Cup is scheduled to take place in Russia from 14 June to 15 July 2018, after the country was awarded the hosting rights on 2 December 2010.Serbia has announced their 23-man squad for the 2018 World Cup, including several Serie A star such as Sergej Milinkovic-Savic, according to Football Italia.Coach Mladen Krstajic has named the group that will follow him to Russia for the tournament which kicks off in 13 days.Those on the list are Roma full-back Aleksandar Kolarov, Fiorentina defender Nikola Milenkovic, Lazio midfielder Milinkovic-Savic and Torino talent Adem Ljajic.Report: Euro 2020 qualifying Group B George Patchias – September 11, 2019 Euro 2020 qualifying Group B sees Portugal and Serbia play catch up with Ukraine.While Cristiano Ronaldo broke records and his Portugal side ran out…Marija Nastasic was ruled out because of injury, with Mijat Gacinovic, Nemanja Maksimovic and Aleksandar Jovanovic cut from the long-list while Vladimir Stojkovic, Predrag Rajkovic, Marko Dmitrovic are goalkeepers.For defenders, Aleksandar Kolarov, Antonio Rukavina, Milan Rodic, Branislav Ivanovic, Uros Spajic, Milos Veljkovic, Dusko Tosic, Nikola Milenkovic will lead the team, while midfielders are Nemanja Matic, Luka Milivojevic, Marko Grujic, Dusan Tadic, Andrija Zivkovic, Filip Kostic, Nemanja Radonjic, Sergej Milinkovic-Savic, Adem LjajicForwards are Aleksandar Mitrovic, Aleksandar Prijovic, Luka JovicThe 2018 FIFA World Cup will be the 21st FIFA World Cup, a quadrennial international football tournament contested by the men’s national teams of the member associations of FIFA.
Ghazal poetry has got the power to relax the mind, body and soul when trivial and unimportant matters take up most of our time. To bring forth the smooth amalgamation of words and music, Mridula Satish Tandon is going to present ‘Soch Se Saaz-o-Aawaz Tak’ in the national capital. One can experience the enchantment of the ghazals of poet Farhat Shahzad and the talented versatility of the popular ghazal singer, Shakeel Ahmed, who will bring fresh and original compositions along with evergreen favourites to delight the audience. Also Read – ‘Playing Jojo was emotionally exhausting’Farhat Shahzad will be giving a tribute to the long association with Ustad Mehdi Hasan and will also announce the soon to be launched book of ghazals by Farhat Shahzad in Devnagri script.The program is presented as an ongoing initiative by SIET to provide visibility to contemporary poets and to give access to the public to a rich and creative literary world.Farhat Shahzad is a name which stands tall in the pantheon of poets. His ghazals create an imagery and a tracery of emotions which speaks to each individual as his ethos seems to arise from the humanity, which is the cultural hall mark of the Ganga Jamni tehzeeb of Indian civilization Also Read – Leslie doing new comedy special with NetflixFarhat Shahzad shot to a meteoric fame and celebrity in 1985 with the release of an album Kehna Usey. The wildly popular new album Kehna Usey, comprised of nine ghazals, sung by ghazal maestro Mehdi Hassan, and all the sensational nine ghazals in the album were written by Farhat Shazad. The world of music discovered a new star in him. Shahzad had earned highest respect in the world of music and poetry when he first forayed into this genre. Ustad Mehdi Hassan did three exclusive albums based on the poetry and ghazals of Shahzad sahib and included his work in many other composite selections. Ghulam Ali has produced two albums exclusively of his poems. The famous Sufi singer Maqbool Sabri has exclusively used Farhat Sahib’s ghazals in two albums.Farhat Shahzad’s poetry has been sung by and celebrated by all our legendary ghazal singers of contemporary times, Mehdi Hassan, Jagjit Singh and Ghulam Ali. Lata Mangeshkar also sang his ghazal in her album Saadgi. The only duet between Lata Mangeshkar and Mehndi Hasan uses his lyrics Tera Milna Bahut Achha Lage Hai. Shakeel Ahmed is considered a specialist in Ghazal gayaki. His popularity as a composer and singer spans beyond India, to countries like Pakistan, Kuwait, Dubai, Hong Kong etc. He has performed to packed audiences across different countries where his performances have been made memorable by his melodious and soul stirring renditions. Shahzad’s rendition of ghazals is marked by the intricacies of classical notations. He possesses an exceptional voice noted for range and sensitivity. His excellence and finesse in voice control and modulation, ability to deliver emotion convincingly, discernment in projecting the sentiment expressed by the poet, crisp and clear voice coupled with his impeccable diction of both Hindi and Urdu languages have won him accolades of the discerning listener everywhere. Shakeel Ahmed too combines a deep knowledge of Music with a passion and feel for the subject which imbues his rendering of ghazals with an intense but easy understanding of the emotions conveyed by the lyrics.When: December 6 Where: Amaltas Auditorium, India Habitat Centre, Lodhi RoadTiming: 6.30 pm onwards
Categories: Howrylak News,News Bipartisan bills will treat 17-year-olds as minors for most criminal offenses A plan to change the age at which individuals are considered adults for the purposes of prosecuting and adjudicating criminal offenses – and the funding mechanism to support the change – recently was approved by the House Law and Justice Committee.The legislation voted on by the committee was offered by numerous Michigan state representatives as part of a bipartisan, 21-bill package.“This is a monumental criminal justice reform,” said Representative Martin Howrylak, of Troy, who serves on the committee. “We will be able to treat kids as kids and adults as adults within the system and that will lead to better rehabilitative efforts as we strive to get offenders back out into society to successfully live and work.”Michigan is one of just four states in the country that automatically consider a 17-year-old to be an adult in criminal offenses. With this legislative package, 17-year-olds will be moved under the jurisdiction of juvenile courts, while serious offenders could still be “waived up” to adult criminal court. Societal, behavioral and psychological analysis shows this practice creates a dangerous situation for young people who are in an older prison population and housed with adult inmates.A big hurdle with this shift in policy involves the costs arising from transferring authority from adult criminal courts to family courts in regards to 17-year-olds who commit criminal offenses – specifically the Michigan Child Care Fund. Currently, the Child Care Fund represents state dollars which currently provide 50 percent reimbursement to counties for the costs of providing child welfare and juvenile justice cases.House Bill 6396, sponsored by Howrylak, will give Michigan counties the ability to choose a funding option to assist in dealing with the influx of newly adjudicated 17-year olds. One option provides that all newly adjudicated 17-year-olds will be funded through an annual county juvenile grant, paid in quarterly increments, with no change to child care funding for juveniles 16 years of age or younger. The second option allows counties to forgo the grant and receive an overall increase in the Child Care Fund reimbursement rate of 68 percent. The legislation was the end result of a workgroup constructed by Representative Howrylak which was made up of representatives from Michigan counties, courts, sheriffs, prosecutors, and many others.“This proposal addresses the funding concerns that came from this project and I am pleased that the workgroup’s diligent work was recognized with the advancement of these bills,” said Howrylak.Two other Howrylak bills within the package, HBs 4678 and 4741, require policies and programs to be in place for inmates. Under HB 4678, a Family Advisory Board within the Michigan Department of Corrections will assist in family reunification after incarceration. Meanwhile, HB 4741 requires the MDOC to develop policies related to prison inmates who are less than 21 years of age.Another Howrylak bill, HB 4850, amends the Code of Criminal Procedure to require that an individual who is under 18 be taken to the family division of a circuit court, reflecting the change in age threshold within state law.After securing passage from committee, the bill package now advances to the House floor for further consideration. 29Nov Rep. Howrylak applauds committee passage of ‘Raise the Age’ proposal